Greeks are resigned to new austerity measures which mean a permanent team of foreign inspectors will monitor the country’s finances but they still fear the multi-billion bailout won’t help the country in the long term.

As the saying goes, there are many possible reasons for an insider to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy — they expect to make money. So let’s look at two noteworthy recent insider buys.

The Bank of Namibia kept its benchmark interest rate, the repurchase rate, unchanged at 6.00%, for the 7th consecutive meeting.  Bank of Namibia Governor Ipumbu Shiimi said: ”In view of the need to ensure a sustained growth in the domestic economy, the MPC is of the view that a tightening of the monetary policy stance at this stage might be premature and thus detrimental to the growth prospects.”

The Namibian central bank also held its interest rate unchanged at its December meeting, after dropping the rate 75 basis points in December 2010.  Namibia reported annual inflation of 7.2% in December, up from 6.1% on October, 5.3% in September, compared to 5.4% the previous month, 4.8% in July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, and 4.8% in April.  Namibia’s currency is fixed against neighboring South Africa’s rand (ZAR), thus the Namibian central bank tends to follow the monetary policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the mother of all economic indicators.

And it’s commonly used as a gauge of the economic health of a country, as well as a country’s standard of living.

It also serves as a measure of a nation’s productivity and represents the market value of all goods and services produced by the economy during the period measured, including personal consumption, government purchases, private inventories, paid-in construction costs and the foreign trade balance (exports are added, imports are subtracted).

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is an agency in the United States Department of Commerce that provides this info every quarter, first in an advance release four weeks after quarter ends, then in a final release three months after the quarter ends.

What it Means for Investors…

Real GDP (inflation-adjusted GDP) is the key factor that says the most about the well being of the economy. The BEA’s advance release is always heavily anticipated and has the ability move markets.

It’s by far the most followed, discussed and digested economic indicator out there – useful for economists, analysts, investors and policy makers. The popular rule of thumb states that somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5% to 3.5% per year growth in real GDP numbers is a healthy economy. This range will provide for corporate profit and jobs growth just enough so that inflation won’t rear its ugly head.

The “corporate profits” and “inventory” data in the GDP report are a great resource for those investors putting money into equities. Both categories show total growth during the previous quarter; corporate profits data also displays pre-tax profits, operating cash flows and breakdowns for all major sectors of the economy.

The BEA even supplies its own analysis of the quarterly data, presenting several useful documents that condense the massive release down to a manageable and readable size. They also provide an annual analysis of data that segments results down to the industry level – a very useful tool for both equity and fixed-income investors who are interested in particular industries related to their holdings.

The Most Recent Report

On January 27, 2012, the BEA released the advance estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011. Real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.8%, up from 1.8% in the third quarter. The main contributors were private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Declines in government spending, at the federal, state and local levels reduced growth.

And markets barely moved the day it was released. Why, because economic numbers can tell you two stories. The 2011 fourth quarter increase of 2.8% came in below expectations, but was a welcome improvement over the third quarter 1.8%. There was the “good” news that inventory stocking contributed 1.94% of the 2.8% GDP growth.

However, it was countered by the fact that part of future economic growth was taken in 4Q2011 – GDP is determined at point of manufacture, and not point of sale.

It’s important to know what the numbers mean in order to provide your own due diligence. Remember, one report over a specific period of time isn’t the best investment indicator – but it can be a piece of the pie.

Good Investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U

Toll Brothers (TOL) announced that it lost $2.8 million, or 2 cents per share, for the quarter ended Jan. 31, versus a profit of $3.4 million, or 2 cents per share, in the same period last year.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Sterling pound stole all the attention during the European and US session after the dovish statement from the Bank of England. 2 Members asked for 75 billion pounds instead of 50 billion pounds. In response to this, the pound was heavily sold off and the pair plunged below 1.5700 levels. It printed a fresh low of 1.5648 and is currently trading near the low at 1.5655, down about 0.78% for the day. The support may be seen at 1.5650 and 1.5600. The resistance may be seen at 1.5730 and 1.5770.

Euro suffered from second disappointing news of Greece downgrade to C from CCC by Fitch after poor PMI earlier in the day and fell on the news. It is currently trading at 1.3233, flat for the day. The support may be seen at 1.3200 and below at 1.3120. The resistance may be seen at 1.3250 and 1.3320 levels.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade in a narrow range of 30 pips. It is currently trading at 0.9120, virtually flat for the day. The support may be seen at 0.9100 and below at 0.9070. The resistance may be seen at 0.9150 and 0.9200 levels. The downward bias in the pair is still in place even though the US dollar is strengthening against Euro and Pound.

Australian dollar continued its slide against the US dollar in the US session and formed a fresh low of 1.0604. But it has since then come off the low and is currently trading at 1.0630, down about 0.30% for the day. The support may be seen at 1.0610 while the resistance may be seen at 1.0650 and above at 1.0700.

The US dollar is trading against the Japanese Yen above the 80 levels. It formed a fresh high of 80.37 during the US session. It is trading near the 7 month high at 80.30, up about 0.72%. The resistance may be seen at 80.40 while the support may be seen at 80.

The US dollar index is steady above the 79 levels and has printed a new high during the US session at 79.44. It is trading at 79.36.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Last week, I spent a few days at a casino resort in California. While I expected the weekend to be busy, I was surprised at how crowded it was on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Every time I set foot into the casino, the place was humming with activity. On several trips to the poker room, tables were full and I had to wait to be seated.

Even at 4:30 AM, as I passed through on the way to Starbucks before catching my ride to the airport, the electronic sounds of slot machines in use filled the room.

The restaurants were always crowded.

Regardless of what you think of the economy, it’s hard to deny that casinos aren’t only surviving, but thriving.

In Las Vegas, gambling revenue was up 5.1% in 2011. Macau, where a lot of American casinos have investments, is even hotter, with revenue soaring 42% in 2011.

Bet With the House

I used to love to gamble. Blackjack was my game. But then I learned how to play poker and the appeal of trying to beat the house vanished. Now, if I lose my money at the poker tables, I can only blame myself (or the superior play of an opponent). The odds aren’t stacked against me from the moment I sit down.

Imagine if you could bet with the house instead of playing against it. Well, you can by investing in the right gaming stocks.

The best way to bet with the house, in my opinion, is Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS). Las Vegas Sands owns the Venetian and Palazzo in Las Vegas and five properties in Macau, the gambling capital of Asia.

Las Vegas Sands has been coming up in my proprietary S.T.A.R.S. system, – a stock-picking model that utilizes supercomputing power. The technology behind S.T.A.R.S. was designed by the same programmer who created programs for some of the largest and most successful quantitative hedge funds in the world.

S.T.A.R.S. identified Las Vegas Sands in early January due to its 17.6% annual growth rate in book value and quarterly earnings, which have doubled in the past year. I recommended the stock in The Oxford Systems Trader, my research service that uses S.T.A.R.S., at $48.36. The stock is up 17% since then, although the June calls I recommended at the same time are up 80%. That compares with a 5.5% rise in the S&P 500 during the same period.

Even though we’re already up on the stock, Las Vegas Sands remains my favorite casino stock going forward.

Bet Against the House

Usually, you don’t want to bet against the house. But in one case, a company’s director is. Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) is having a dust-up with a member of its board of directors.

Kazuo Okada, the Director and the company’s largest shareholder, is upset that the company made a $135-million donation to the University of Macau and has asked management for access to the books. Management has refused. Okada is suing the company in order to be allowed to examine the company’s books. And now the SEC is involved, launching an “informal inquiry” into the donation.

So you have someone on the board of directors who has to sue the company in order to be to allowed to look at the company’s books, and the SEC gets involved. In the financial community, that’s what’s known as “not good.”

This weekend, Wynn pulled a stunning move, accusing Okada of improper payments to gambling regulators and forcibly buying back his 20% stake in the company at a 30% discount to the market, and asked Mr. Okada to resign.

Okada has vowed to fight the forcible sale of his stock.

It raises a lot of questions. Why would the company not permit one of its own board members to see internal documents? A director is responsible to shareholders. Management has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders. They’re supposed to be on the same team.

Granted, managements and boards don’t always see eye to eye, but the goal should always be enhancing shareholder value.

Something smells rotten here and I think it’s only a matter of time before the whole story gets out. And when it does, I suspect shares of Wynn will be worth a lot less than they are now.

Casino stocks, which have performed nicely since the beginning of the year, should continue to do well as the economy improves. But even with gamblers at the tables, Wynn is likely going to crap out.

Good Investing,

Marc Lichtenfeld

Article by Investment U

Last week, I spent a few days at a casino resort in California. While I expected the weekend to be busy, I was surprised at how crowded it was on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Every time I set foot into the casino, the place was humming with activity. On several trips to the poker room, tables were full and I had to wait to be seated.

Even at 4:30 AM, as I passed through on the way to Starbucks before catching my ride to the airport, the electronic sounds of slot machines in use filled the room.

The restaurants were always crowded.

Regardless of what you think of the economy, it’s hard to deny that casinos aren’t only surviving, but thriving.

In Las Vegas, gambling revenue was up 5.1% in 2011. Macau, where a lot of American casinos have investments, is even hotter, with revenue soaring 42% in 2011.

Bet With the House

I used to love to gamble. Blackjack was my game. But then I learned how to play poker and the appeal of trying to beat the house vanished. Now, if I lose my money at the poker tables, I can only blame myself (or the superior play of an opponent). The odds aren’t stacked against me from the moment I sit down.

Imagine if you could bet with the house instead of playing against it. Well, you can by investing in the right gaming stocks.

The best way to bet with the house, in my opinion, is Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS). Las Vegas Sands owns the Venetian and Palazzo in Las Vegas and five properties in Macau, the gambling capital of Asia.

Las Vegas Sands has been coming up in my proprietary S.T.A.R.S. system, – a stock-picking model that utilizes supercomputing power. The technology behind S.T.A.R.S. was designed by the same programmer who created programs for some of the largest and most successful quantitative hedge funds in the world.

S.T.A.R.S. identified Las Vegas Sands in early January due to its 17.6% annual growth rate in book value and quarterly earnings, which have doubled in the past year. I recommended the stock in The Oxford Systems Trader, my research service that uses S.T.A.R.S., at $48.36. The stock is up 17% since then, although the June calls I recommended at the same time are up 80%. That compares with a 5.5% rise in the S&P 500 during the same period.

Even though we’re already up on the stock, Las Vegas Sands remains my favorite casino stock going forward.

Bet Against the House

Usually, you don’t want to bet against the house. But in one case, a company’s director is. Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) is having a dust-up with a member of its board of directors.

Kazuo Okada, the Director and the company’s largest shareholder, is upset that the company made a $135-million donation to the University of Macau and has asked management for access to the books. Management has refused. Okada is suing the company in order to be allowed to examine the company’s books. And now the SEC is involved, launching an “informal inquiry” into the donation.

So you have someone on the board of directors who has to sue the company in order to be to allowed to look at the company’s books, and the SEC gets involved. In the financial community, that’s what’s known as “not good.”

This weekend, Wynn pulled a stunning move, accusing Okada of improper payments to gambling regulators and forcibly buying back his 20% stake in the company at a 30% discount to the market, and asked Mr. Okada to resign.

Okada has vowed to fight the forcible sale of his stock.

It raises a lot of questions. Why would the company not permit one of its own board members to see internal documents? A director is responsible to shareholders. Management has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders. They’re supposed to be on the same team.

Granted, managements and boards don’t always see eye to eye, but the goal should always be enhancing shareholder value.

Something smells rotten here and I think it’s only a matter of time before the whole story gets out. And when it does, I suspect shares of Wynn will be worth a lot less than they are now.

Casino stocks, which have performed nicely since the beginning of the year, should continue to do well as the economy improves. But even with gamblers at the tables, Wynn is likely going to crap out.

Good Investing,

Marc Lichtenfeld

Article by Investment U

U.S. DOLLAR gold prices held steady just off $1760 an ounce during Wednesday morning trading in London, after a rally in Tuesday’s US session saw gold climb 1.3%.

Silver prices softened slightly but held above $34 per ounce – having through that level on Tuesday following the Greek bailout announcement. Stocks and commodities edged lower this morning, while government bond prices gained.

Gold prices ”[ran] into sell stops at the $1760 level,” says one gold dealer here in London.
“We don’t see a substantial amount of enquiries in the physical market,” adds Dick Poon, Hong Kong-based precious metals manager at refiner Heraeus.

However, “a break of $1763 will bring in fresh buying,” reckons the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, “looking for a test of November high $1803.”

Greece has been given nine days to meet a list of conditions before it can receive its €130 billion agreed by Eurozone finance ministers yesterday. The list includes sacking underperforming tax collectors and readying state-owned companies for privatization in the summer, the Financial Times reports.

“The [Greek] deal may have removed near-term uncertainty,” adds Helen Roberts, head of government bonds at F&C Asset Management in London, “[but] it’s a hard environment to implement austerity measures. It’s a worry that the Greek government might not be able to do much even though they are fully committed to the agreement.”

“The greatest risk to the downside that we see for gold is a fresh Greek crisis,” warns HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel.

Here in London, two members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted against its decision to expand its quantitative easing program by £50 billion earlier this month, while the remaining seven voted in favor, minutes published Wednesday show.

David Miles and Adam Posen both voted in favor of a larger increase of £75 billion, which would have taken the total size of asset purchases to £350 billion.

“This leaves the door open for more QE,” reckons Victoria Cadman, London-based economist at Investec.

“We’re looking for another £50 billion in May, and after that we don’t see any more as the economy picks up in the second half [of 2012].”

In a speech in Scotland yesterday, Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean acknowledged that “the current extended period of rock-bottom interest rates has impacted heavily on those holding most of their savings in deposit or short-term savings accounts, who have seen negative real returns.”

Bean added, however, that while the” side effects” of QE “may be unpalatable…treatment is invariably better than the alternative”.

Sterling gold prices hit an eleven-week high at £1119 per ounce Wednesday morning, as the Pound fell on the currency markets.

The gold price in Yen meantime moved to within 5% of last September’s all-time high today, touching ¥140,971 per ounce, as the Dollar hit its highest level against the Japanese currency since last July.

Like the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan also expanded its quantitative easing program earlier this month.

Growth in Germany’s manufacturing sector has slowed this month, according to provisional purchasing managers index data published Wednesday. German manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 – down from 51.0 last month (a figure above 50 indicates expansion).

Across the Eurozone as a whole, provisional manufacturing PMI rose from 48.8 in January to 49.0.
Over in China – the world’s largest gold bullion consumer in the fourth quarter of last year – flash PMI data compiled by HSBC.

Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs repeated its bullish view on gold prices Wednesday.

“We expect US real interest rates to remain lower for longer given our US economics team’s expectation for US economic growth to remain slow through 2012,” said a note from the bank.

“Consequently, we expect gold prices to continue to rise through 2012, reaching $1,940 an ounce in 12 months, and we continue to recommend a long gold position.”

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The yen dipped to a 7-month low against the dollar as speculations about the US growth prospects. The strengthening economy in the US has dampened the demand for the Asian currency as a safe haven currency. The Yen also declined against the Yen to a three-month low after the Greece bailout plan was approved by the regions finance ministers.

However, the dollar index dipped to a two-day drop after economists’ speculation on a report that is expected to show that the home sales increased for the fourth month now. There was a yield difference between the two-year Treasury notes and similar Japanese government bonds which reached a six-month high.

According to Lauren Rosborough a Senior Foreign Exchange strategist at Societe Generate SA in London, the US economy is showing some signs of rehabilitation hence the yield is up and more upside trend is expected on the dollar-yen. He also added that most investors in Japan might be tempted by the high yield and may decide to sell off the yen and buy the dollar.

Then yen pared 0.5 percent against the dollar to settle at 80.18 where it has earlier touched its weakest level of 80.30 yen since July 12. The euro improved against the yen by 0.6 percent to settle at 106.10 yen.

The declining yen is seen as a result of the government’s unexpected intervention on Feb. 14 when it made an asset-purchase of 30 trillion yen. The Bank of Japan has still set another 19 trillion yen for purchase of government bonds. The BOJ has also insisted on a target of 1 percent inflation. These efforts by the BOJ and the positive economic reports from US and eurozone have resulted to the declining yen.

The BOJ governor told lawmakers today that the price target is set to indicate the central bank’s resolve and added that the bank would continue to take steps to end deflation. According to Rosborough, the Bank of Japan’s intervention was not momentous compared to other interventions or interventions by other central banks. He indicated that the signal in combination with the trade deficit had caused investors to sell the yen.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Fears that Greece could still default on its debt despite Monday’s approval of a bailout package led to risk aversion in the markets yesterday. The euro largely reversed earlier gains against both the USD and JPY as a result. Today, in addition to any euro-zone announcements regarding Greece, traders will want to pay attention to a batch of German and French manufacturing data. As the two largest economies in the euro-zone, indicators from Germany and France have the potential to impact the EUR.

Economic News

USD – Risk Aversion Leads to USD Gains

The USD was able to largely recoup the losses it took on Monday throughout yesterday’s trading session, as ongoing euro-zone worries led to risk aversion in the market place. The EUR/USD fell over 100 pips yesterday, to just below the 1.3200 level, before staging a mild upward correction. The AUD/USD also fell close to 100 pips yesterday. The pair has been unable to break the 1.0800 resistance level and has dropped as low as 1.0652. Meanwhile, against the Japanese yen, the dollar has managed to hang onto recent gains, but has been unable to break above the 79.90 level.

Turning to today, a lack of significant international news means that any announcements out of the euro-zone will largely decide risk appetite. Investors are still skeptical of Greece’s chances of avoiding a debt default. Furthermore, there has been increased talk as of late about whether Greece will be able to remain in the euro-zone. Any further indication that the Greek crisis will persist may result in safe-haven currencies, like the greenback, extending their recent gains.

Later in the week, dollar traders will want to pay attention to several US indicators, including the Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales figures. Both are considered valid signs of how the US economic recovery is proceeding and have the potential to generate significant market volatility when they are released.

EUR – Despite Greek Bailout, EUR Resumes Bearishness

The euro staged a downward reversal during yesterday’s trading session, despite the approval of a Greek bailout package that many hoped would boost riskier currencies. The EUR/USD once again fell below the 1.3200 level during European trading before staging a slight correction and stabilizing around the 1.3230 level. Against the Japanese yen, the common currency fell some 80 pips before bouncing back to the 105.40 level.

Turning to today, euro-zone news is likely to remain the driving force behind market movements. Ongoing fears regarding Greek debt continue to cause investors to abandon riskier currencies like the euro. The common currency may continue to fall unless signs that the euro-zone is recovering economically are released. Manufacturing and Service PMI’s out of both France and Germany may help the euro recoup some of its recent losses when they are released today.

CAD – USD Gains on Loonie Following Retail Sales Figure

The loonie took some losses against the US dollar in trading yesterday, after negative euro-zone news and a worse than expected Canadian Core Retail Sales figure caused investors to revert back to safe havens. The indicator came in at 0.0% following last month’s reading of 0.4%. The USD/CAD extended its upward momentum following the indicators release before stabilizing right around the 0.9970 level.

Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring the euro-zone for any clues as to investor risk taking. Any additional signs that the Greek debt crisis is not yet over may cause investors to keep their funds with the safe haven greenback. The USD/CAD may be able to breach the 0.9990 resistance level as a result.

Crude Oil – Oil Stays Close to $105 throughout Day

Crude oil was largely steady throughout yesterday’s trading session, despite pessimism that the recent approval of a Greek bailout deal would help the country avoid defaulting on its debt. Iranian threats to halt oil exports to any European country that did not sign a long-term contract reinforced supply side fears among investors. As a result, the price of crude oil held steady close to the $105 a barrel for much of the day.

Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring any announcements out of both the euro-zone and Iran. Any additional signs that the Greek debt crisis could potentially continue, may drive investors away from riskier assets, like oil. That being said, the ongoing threat that Iran could limit oil exports could keep prices at their current level.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Most long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend is known yet for this week. The one exception is the Slow Stochastic on the weekly chart, which has formed a bearish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index on the same chart. Should it move into the overbought zone, a downward correction may take place.

GBP/USD

The Slow Stochastic on the weekly chart has formed a bearish cross, indicating that downward movement could occur in the coming days. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart, which is currently hovering around the -20 level. Going short may be a wise choice for this pair.

USD/JPY

After several weeks of upward movement, technical indicators are now showing this pair as overbought. The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has crossed into overbought territory and is now angling downward. Meanwhile, the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has remained steady at 90, indicating that the pair has run out of bullish momentum. Going short may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

The Slow Stochastic on the weekly chart has formed a bullish cross, indicating that the pair could see upward movement in the coming days. That being said, most other long term indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair.

The Wild Card

CAD/JPY

The daily chart’s technical indicators are showing that this pair is in overbought territory and may see a downward correction in the near future. The Williams Percent Range is currently hovering around the -20 level, while a bearish cross has formed on the Slow Stochastic. Going short may be a wise choice for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The USD is experiencing renewed strength against the euro and the Japanese yen. Clearly, the uncertainty surrounding the euro has driven up the USD/EUR, however, the USD is enjoying a rise in general as traders are migrating towards the more risk averse greenback. Additionally, the USD/JPY has moved past the Y80.00 point. This marks the highest spike in the USD/JPY since last summer. While some expect the yen to continue losing ground, there is also the possibility that it could gain some strength back as investors begin to buy back the yen while it remains at a lower value.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) –  The focus of the day was on Bank of England minutes. The quantitative easing was increased by 50 billion pounds. 7 people voted in favor of 50 billion pound increase while 2 voted for 75 billion pound increase. The sterling pound plunged 100 pips within two hours and while on the way lost both the important zones of 1.5800 and 1.5700. It is currently trading just above 1.5700 at 1.5705, down about half a percent for the day. The support may be seen at 1.5690 and below at 1.5650. The resistance may be seen at 1.5730 and 1.5800 levels.

Compared to pound, Euro was relatively stronger. It moved in a narrow range of 50 pips. But the weaker PMI data from Germany sent the single currency down by 50 pips. The composite PMI came at 49.7 against the expected value of 50.6. The pair is trading near its low at 1.3215, down about 0.12% for the day. The support may be seen at 1.3200 and below at 1.3120. The resistance may be seen at 1.3250 and 1.3320 levels.

The US dollar is trading above the 80 levels against the Japanese Yen. The pair has printed a new high of 80.35 during the European session. This is a 7 month high for the pair and the level was last seen on 12 July last year. The pair is currently trading at 80.22, up about 0.61%. The resistance may be seen at 80.40 while the support may be seen at 80.

The USD/CHF pair traded in a narrow range of 34 pips. It is currently trading at 0.9122, flat for the day. The support may be seen at 0.9100 and below at 0.9070. The resistance may be seen at 0.9150 and 0.9200 levels.

Australian dollar is losing against the US dollar on the US strengthening trend of the day. It is currently trading at 1.0637, down about quarter of a percent for the day. The support may be seen at 1.0610 while the resistance may be seen at 1.0650 and above at 1.0700.

The US dollar index has come above the 79 levels and is trading at 79.27.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of

Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) - There was disagreement as two of the 9 member Monetary Policy Committee proposed to raise Bank of England’s stimulus by 75 billion pounds. However, there proposal was defeated as others felt that such a move would send the wrong signal to investor and might cause panic. The seven members who voted against this move sought to raise the stimulus by 50 billion pounds to 325 billion pounds. According to the Feb 8-9 meeting’s minutes, the members argued that a larger increase risked provoking sentiments that the economy was weaker than it is.

Further, the minutes released on Wednesday Feb 22 indicated that the majority had cited the recent positive domestic and international data that shows tremendous growth in some sectors of the economy hence said that the economic growth might be stronger than anticipated. The report has been expected by many investors who believe that the minutes are indicative of the direction of the UK’s economy.

After the report, the pound fell by 0.4 percent against the dollar to settle at 1.5717. The pound is however expected to regain before the end of the week as other reports from other parts of the world are expected to cause some effects on the forex market.

According to Posen and Miles who proposed the 75 billion pounds increment, there are some weaknesses in the economy hence there might be need for more deleveraging. Further, they indicated that there is risk of prolonged period of depressed demand which might cause the inflation to fall below the estimated target of 2 percent.

According to some economists, the 50 billion pound quantitative easing has left the door open and intervention is expected in May. This might be last intervention made by the BOE as the economy is expected to pick from June. The BOE has expanded its asset-purchase program as the economy shrunk in the fourth quarter. The Monetary policy Committee said that the economic growth will be volatile for the near term but it is expected that the rate of expansion to strengthen gradually later in the year. The MPC was unanimous in keeping the interest rates at 0.5 percent.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

As trading began on Wednesday the euro continued to display a lack of direction. The second bailout package for Greece has been secured, however, overall market sentiment indicates that investors are worried about the actual implementation of the package. Additionally, there remains the risk that Greece can still default on its debt obligations. This has led to a spate of risk averse trading with investors flocking to the less volatile USD.

Also this morning we’ve seen a mixed bag of news from Europe. Flash manufacturing PMI data was announced for both Germany and France and each differed in their results. Germany fell behind the expected outcomes while France actually came out ahead of what many analysts forecasted. This may contribute to the overall sentiment of uncertainty surrounding the euro this afternoon.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) - Even with the Greek debts deal getting approved, investors were not quite in a hurry to react. Most currency pairs continued to be the same, as did the dollar. The dollar index shut at 79.528, just a few clicks above its starting price, 79.473. What could be in the shop for us today?

It seems that even with the Greek debts deal finally being released, investors are staying careful about the whole scenario. This was a little uncommon, as one probably would have predicted a more powerful response once the information hit the airs.

For US related reports today, we’ve got existing home sales data coming in at 3:00 pm GMT. We anticipate that the annualized figure of existing home sales will list 4.66 million , a little bit greater than the 4.61 million we saw 30 days ago. Should we see an even greater figure, we could see risk hunger liven up, with investors increasing their positions in the high yielding currencies.

Tough success for the sterling pound! Though yesterday's public sector net credit review was helpful of a GBP rally, the GBP just couldn't get off significantly moving. It finished sluggish against both the dollar and the euro as GBP/USD slid 66 pips while EUR/GBP increased 38 pips on the day.

You might have thought that the GBP would be able to bag a few pips here and there after the public sector net borrowing review revealed a loss of 10.7 billion GBP for last month, outclassing the anticipated which will have seen credit to cut by 8.9 billion GBP. After all, it just goes to show that the U.K. is actually following through with its austerity methods, which indicates that it's on its way to enhancing its financial circumstances. However, this report did little to get over to overall bearish sensation in the marketplaces last night.

Today for the UK, we have the newest MPC conference minutes due for launch at 9:30 am GMT, and analysts have a feeling it could be a hot one! Remember, in its last monetary policy declaration, the Bank of England made the decision to improve its asset purchase ability. The minutes of their conference could very well expose what's in the playing cards for the U.K.
 

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) -  A Greek debt deal has at last been announced! But unexpectedly the information never launched fireworks for the euro as the markets did not spike as many analysts had expected. EUR/USD fell from its intraday high of 1.3294 and ended the day only 4 pips above its starting price at 1.3241.

Why didn't the dollar skyrocket? Was the debts deal not excellent enough? Note that, Greece actually obtained a very excellent aid bundle with the EU offering Greece another 130 billion EUR. However, it looks like marketplaces are doubtful if the nation could actually accomplish its responsibilities and persuade investors to take a profit cut of 52.5% (only 50% was formerly agreed).

There is still a lot of concern around the debt-ridden nation and whether or not it would default. So until we get more information about how Greece would work out itself in the upcoming few weeks, the euro will most probably stay susceptible to sentiment. However, until we get some market-moving updates about the nation, I think we should be on our feet for the reviews we have on tap from the euro zone as they would probably impact the currency's outlook on the price charts, at least in today's dealing.

At 8:00 am GMT, France will launch its PMI reviews with its data for manufacturing for February expected at 49.1 and its services PMI eyed at 52.3. Germany will then take over at 8:30 am GMT. Its manufacturing PMI is estimated at 51.6 and its services PMI is expected at 53.8. Come 9:00 am GMT, the euro zone general manufacturing PMI is approximated to come in at 49.4 while the forecast for the services PMI is at 50.7.

At 10:00 am GMT, the prediction for industrial new orders obtained in December 2011 is a 0.6% development and is expected to remove the 1.2% reduction it obtained 30 days before.

So if you're looking to buy the euro today, you may want to keep your fingers and hands crossed for these reviews to come in better than expected!
 

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

There’s no mistaking it. Uranium is a touchy subject, and it’s been exposed to some wild swings.

After rising aggressively in 2010, the uranium spot price dropped after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. It fell straight to $50, before bouncing and then re-testing this level again five months later in August.

In the six months since then, we have seen the uranium price hold above $50. In fact, after the year from hell for investors, it looks to me as though uranium stocks are now showing signs of recovery.

The thing is, it wasn’t just uranium that fell after Fukushima.

The whole stock market started a 20% correction soon after.

Yet, uranium stocks had a double blow and many are still down by 50-75%. If there is one thing uranium has plenty of right now, it is the ‘ugly duckling factor’.

The Time to Buy Uranium Stocks

It is hard to find any other sector that is more out of favour. But when the tide turns against you, this is exactly where you find some of the best investment opportunities.

The uranium spot price isn’t going to soar any time soon like it did last year (unless there’s a war in Iran – and oil supply is crippled). However, the market expects a major shortfall in the world’s uranium supply in 2013, and uranium prices are expected to start creeping up as we get closer to this.

So what I expect in 2012 is a steady recovery, with the uranium price around $60/lb by December. This would be a great result after last year’s massive fall in uranium prices. It would help bring uranium back onto the menu for investors.

The fact is, even while the uranium price fell, the major uranium users such as China, India, Russia and Japan are still completely behind nuclear power. They have to be. Nuclear is a major and growing provider of power in these countries.

Nuclear is a valid part of a country’s energy mix, just as trains are a valid part of a country’s transport network. The idea of stopping the growth of the nuclear energy sector after Fukushima is like suggesting you ban trains after a crash.

There are about 430 nuclear power plants operating around the world. In the next five years, 84 new plants are coming on line. Looking beyond that, there are another 499 new ones planned or proposed. Nuclear is here to stay.

The heat in a sector can start rising in when the takeovers start happening. It can show that the big players are seeing a long-term future there. There has been quite a bit of action in the uranium sector in the second half of last year, around the same time the uranium spot price turned around.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) outbid uranium major Cameco (TSE: CCO) to take over Hathor Exploration (TSE: HAT) for C$654 million recently. On top of that, Rio is also investing A$342 million in uranium producer,
Energy Resources of Australia (ASX: ERA).

We’ve also just seen China Guangdong Nuclear Power offer the equivalent of $A979 million for Kalahari Minerals (LON: KAL). As Kalahari owns 43% of Extract Resources (ASX: EXT), this would mean a $2.2 billion payout to Extract’s shareholders.

BHP has recently announced plans to expand production at Olympic Dam from 4.5 ktpa to 17 ktpa over 11 years. This would dwarf the output of most other uranium mines. The decision coincided with the government approving the sale of uranium to India, which has plans to build a large nuclear fleet.

Opportunity Knocks for Uranium Stocks

The point is that there is plenty going on, and this is not what you see in a sector that is on its deathbed. There is now a major disconnect between the activity in the uranium sector, which is very healthy; and prices for uranium stocks, which are at their lows. This situation and the investment opportunity can only last so long.

We are starting to see some stocks recover strongly already…

You see, uranium stocks have been hit hard. However, the uranium stocks I’ve tipped in Diggers & Drillers are now gaining some ground again. In the two months since December, both have gained almost 10% and continue to climb.

2012 looks set to be a good year for uranium shares.

Uranium stocks are out of fashion now. But my point is fashions change…

And there’s value here.

If you want to be ahead of the crowd, the next 12 months will be a rare period of opportunity for investing in uranium stocks.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

Publisher’s Note: Dr. Alex Cowie will be appearing at After America: the Port Phillip Publishing Investment Symposium, March 14th-16th at Sydney’s Intercontinental Hotel.

From the Archives…

Iran Oil and the Disintegration of the Petrodollar Standard
2012-02-17 – Dan Denning

Global Oil Chokepoints and the New Silk Road for Energy
2012-02-16 – Dan Denning

Cash In As Yet Another Housing Bubble Bursts
2012-02-15 – David Stevenson

Uranium Stocks – The Restricted Aussie Export That Could Make You Money
2012-02-14 – Kris Sayce

Health, Wealth and Stealth Inflation in the Great Food Swindle
2012-02-13 – Greg Canavan

Uranium Stock Price to Keep Recovering in 2012

Greece continues to dominate the news. Stock markets around the world are either up or down based on news flow out of the troubled country.

It’s now beyond absurdity. Officials continue to apply a band-aid to a gaping flesh wound expecting the flow of blood to stop. It won’t. Greece is bleeding heavily. The ‘troika’s’ austerity measures are not working. Recent data revealed that in the final quarter of 2011 the Greek economy contracted at 7 per cent annual rate. That makes the debt situation much worse.

Greece’s debt dynamics are intractable. Some countries are now realising this and are pushing for a full-scale default. Germany, the Netherlands and Finland (all in a position of relative financial strength) don’t want to pump more dollars into a bottomless pit. They think jettisoning Greece will not lead to dreaded contagion. I’m not so sure.

But others, such as the European Central Bank and France, want Greece to remain a part of the Eurozone at all costs. They’re terrified of contagion.

Europe, as it’s always done, is descending slowly into the politics of self-interest. It’s every ‘man’ for himself. Meanwhile global stock markets engage in a daily pavlovian ritual in response to the bailout rumours.

It doesn’t matter what anyone says or does. Greece has too much debt. It needs a full-scale default to have any chance of growing sustainably. Whether that happens now or later is up to the fools running Europe. In the meantime, the Greek people have been thrown to the banking wolves.

Although you’re probably getting news fatigue from Greece and Europe, it matters for Australia because it affects the cost of credit. It’s getting more expensive for Australian banks to raise funds on the international markets.

As we have seen, the Big Four banks increased interest rates despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the official rate on hold. More importantly, a higher cost of credit is bad for the rest of the Australian economy. The RBA’s is enthusiastic about how the economy is travelling in this post-bubble-bust world. The RBA is wrong.

It’s using the same economic forecasting model that saw the bank increase interest rates just before the credit bust hit Australian shores in 2008. It was wrong then and I’m convinced it is wrong now.

The Australian economy is much weaker than the RBA thinks. The chart below is from Steve Keen’s debt deflation blog. It compares the official unemployment rate, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with data complied by Roy Morgan. The difference is huge.

Here’s the problem: the ABS’s definition of ‘unemployed’ is ridiculous.

Apparently if you work at least two hours a week, you are not unemployed. Roy Morgan on the other hand, reckons anyone who is not employed full or part-time and is looking for work is unemployed.

Using this definition puts unemployment in Australia up around 10 per cent.

That’s recessionary. It squares with poor consumer spending, a very weak stock market and near-zero credit growth.

It’s time the RBA come down from its ivory tower and realised that too. Although I’m not suggesting lower interest rates will fix anything. It hasn’t anywhere else in the world. The central bank and other ‘official’ institutions should just tell it like it is.

Greg Canavan
Editor, Sound Money. Sound Investments.

P.S. Europeans aren’t the only ones making mistakes. Aussie investors are, as well. I’ve recently written a free report on it. Click here to read my free report now to discover what these three bloopers are. And how you can avoid them.

From the Archives…

Iran Oil and the Disintegration of the Petrodollar Standard
2012-02-17 – Dan Denning

Global Oil Chokepoints and the New Silk Road for Energy
2012-02-16 – Dan Denning

Cash In As Yet Another Housing Bubble Bursts
2012-02-15 – David Stevenson

Uranium Stocks – The Restricted Aussie Export That Could Make You Money
2012-02-14 – Kris Sayce

Health, Wealth and Stealth Inflation in the Great Food Swindle
2012-02-13 – Greg Canavan

Why the Australian Economy is Much Weaker than the RBA Thinks