Large US Dollar Speculators reduced bearish bets for 2nd week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-20.71 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their aggregate bearish bets of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-20.71 billion as of Tuesday April 3rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $1.02 billion from the $-21.73 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculator bearish positions have now fallen for two straight weeks although the overall position remains greater than the $-20.0 billion level for a third straight week. Prior to the last two weeks, speculators had boosted their bearish bets in the dollar for four consecutive weeks.

 


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the British pound sterling (6,162 contracts), Japanese yen (7,240 contracts), New Zealand dollar (138 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,293 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-6,683 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-466 contracts), Canadian dollar (-4,822 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-8,149 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-161,26712,169134,381-6,683
GBP-54,485-5,99140,3386,162
JPY-11,287-3,8643,5727,240
CHF14,7462,050-9,911-466
CAD33,118250-31,872-4,822
AUD4,9067,947-75-8,149
NZD-18,705-16818,377138
MXN-104,962-10,02099,0809,293

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:


British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com