Currency Speculators improved US Dollar positions for 6th straight week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-1.92 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Veteran’s Day holiday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to trim their bearish bets of the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-1.92 billion as of Tuesday November 7th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $1.45 billion from the $-3.37 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Speculative positions have improved for the dollar for six straight weeks and the bearish level is at the smallest standing since July 18th when the aggregate position totaled $-1.91 billion.

 


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

* Euro positions rose by over +13,000 contracts this week after positions had declined for three straight weeks. The EUR speculative bets are back above the +80,000 contract level and in the highest position in three weeks.

* British pound sterling positions, meanwhile, dropped by over -10,000 contracts and fell into an overall bearish position last week after a week in a net bullish standing. GBP bearish positions are now at their lowest position since September 19th when contracts were at -10,161 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (13,358 weekly change in contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,729 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-10,443 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-8,979 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,439 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,950 contracts), Australian dollar (-6,171 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-5,480 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-98,828-15,69685,45513,358
GBP5,49311,269-9,198-10,443
JPY155,4086,791-127,848-8,979
CHF44,5726,752-25,110-4,439
CAD-61,9419,83750,889-6,950
AUD-46,1346,30945,437-6,171
NZD12,7235,263-11,187-5,480
MXN-58,907-1,63356,9751,729

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com