Currency Futures Speculators added to US Dollar bearish positions this week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-3.15 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving’s Day holiday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bearish bets for the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-3.15 billion as of Tuesday November 21st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-2.50 billion from the $-0.643 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate US dollar position had seen improvements for seven straight weeks before last week’s decline. The USD position has been in an overall bearish aggregate standing now for nineteen consecutive weeks.

 


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (10,851 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (4,233 contracts), Japanese yen (13,397 contracts) and the Mexican peso (17,853 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Swiss franc (-1,757 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,210 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,215 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,503 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-117,075-14,89095,43710,851
GBP-7,143-6,059-3004,233
JPY146,781-15,166-122,60213,397
CHF47,867556-29,740-1,757
CAD-62,186-4,22145,125-2,210
AUD-36,8148,08939,817-4,215
NZD16,2501,847-13,394-1,503
MXN-82,986-19,31580,38617,853

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com