COT: Currency Specs trim US Dollar bearish positions again this week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-3.37 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to decrease their bearish bets of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-3.37 billion as of Tuesday October 31st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $4.65 billion from the $-8.02 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

US dollar aggregate bearish positions have now fallen for five straight weeks to the lowest bearish level since July 18th when bearish bets totaled $-1.91 billion.

 


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • Euro positions declined by over -11,000 contracts this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The EUR speculative bets are in the lowest position since September 19th when contracts were at +62,753 contracts.
  • Canadian dollar positions fell by over -14,000 contracts and have also declined for three straight weeks. CAD bullish positions are now in their lowest position since September 12th when contracts were at +50,499 contracts.

Overall, the only major currency that improved against the US dollar this week was the British pound sterling (2,730 weekly change in contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-11,407 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-2,012 contracts), Swiss franc (-9,074 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,493 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,642 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,318 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-455 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-83,13222,46672,097-11,407
GBP-5,776-2,7941,2452,730
JPY148,6171,625-118,869-2,012
CHF37,82012,563-20,671-9,074
CAD-71,77817,91057,839-14,493
AUD-52,44316,29551,608-5,642
NZD7,4607,981-5,707-6,318
MXN-57,27486455,246-455

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com