Forex Speculators raised US Dollar bets for 1st time in 7 weeks

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-16.83 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bets for the US dollar last week following six straight weeks of declines.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $-16.83 billion as of Tuesday October 3rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $0.53 billion from the $-17.36 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:


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The individual major currencies had two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • Japanese yen bets dropped by over -10,000 contracts for a second straight week as short bets rose to the highest level since August 8th when bets totaled -95,813 contracts.
  • British pound sterling bets increased by over +10,000 net contracts for a third straight week. The recent gains brought overall GBP speculative bets into a bullish position for the first time since November of 2015 and this week’s gains pushed bullish bets to 19,949 net contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (2,666 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (14,895 contracts), Canadian dollar (523 contracts), New Zealand dollar (65 contracts) and the Mexican peso (5,389 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were theĀ Japanese yen (-13,296 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,431 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-5,382 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-109,308-69290,8332,666
GBP-31,361-16,55219,94914,895
JPY106,43315,998-84,643-13,296
CHF11,5213,857-3,293-1,431
CAD-97,056-22675,128523
AUD-82,1837,08271,812-5,382
NZD-9,6711178,11865
MXN-94,870-5,76589,1165,389

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com