Currency Speculators raise bets against US Dollar for 6th week

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US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-17.36 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bearish bets against the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar position totaling $-17.36 billion as of Tuesday September 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-4.17 billion from the $-13.19 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Aggregate dollar bets have now fallen for thirteen out of the last fourteen weeks and the dollar has been in an overall bearish position for eleven consecutive weeks.

 


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies had four weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • Euro bets jumped this week by over +25,000 bets after falling sharply for the past two weeks.
  • Japanese yen bets dropped by over -20,000 contracts this week after two weeks of gaining positions.
  • British pound sterling bets rose by over +15,000 net contracts this week after a gain by over +35,000 contracts the previous week. The gains have brought overall bets into a bullish position for the first time since November of 2015.
  • Canadian dollar bets rose by over +15,000 positions this week and have risen four out of the past five weeks to the highest bullish level since November 6th 2012.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (25,414 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (15,215 contracts), Canadian dollar (15,759 contracts), Australian dollar (4,682 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,383 contracts) and the Mexican peso (6,775 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-20,025 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (-293 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx-108,616-21,27888,16725,414
GBP-14,809-20,6545,05415,215
JPY90,43523,427-71,347-20,025
CHF7,6643,110-1,862-293
CAD-96,830-16,85974,60515,759
AUD-89,265-2,24377,1944,682
NZD-9,788-1,1158,0531,383
MXN-89,105-5,96383,7276,775

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com