Daily Market Report AUD/USD break or bounce July 17, 2017

By Mexgroup.com

AUD/USD breakout attempt

Price rallied aggressively in the last  days and touched fresh new highs, is strongly bullish on the Daily chart and looks unstoppable. Will increase further if the USDX will slide further, the index has closed the former week at 95.10 level, much below the 95.45 previous low.

USDX is under massive selling pressure on the Daily chart, but remains to see what will happen because is very close to hit a major dynamic support.

AUD/USD will be driven by the fundamental factors in the morning, the Chinese data will have a high impact on the Aussie’s movement. The Chinese GDP could increase by 6.8% in the second quarter, less versus the 6.9% growth in the former reading period, while the Industrial Production may increase by 6.5% in June, could remain steady at 6.5% for the third month in June.

Moreover the Retail Sales could increase by 10.6%, less versus the 10.7% growth in the former reading period , while the Fixed Asset Investment could increase by 8.5%, less versus the 8.6% estimate.

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Price edged higher and is very close to hit the 0.7835 major static resistance, could touch also the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork, where he could find temporary resistance. The perspective remains bullish as long as the rate is trading within the ascending pitchfork’s body.

Will be very important to see how will react when will touch the 0.7835 static resistance, right now we don’t have any overbought sign. Technically, a minor drop is favored after the impressive rally, but is premature to say that we’ll have a corrective phase in the upcoming days.

We’ll have a selling opportunity only if the rate will fail to breakout above the 0.7835 upside obstacle and if will be rejected by this level. I want also to remind you that a valid breakout above the mentioned resistance will confirm a further growth.

USD/JPY trading in the red

Price has turned to the downside after a false breakout above an important static resistance area, continues to move sideways and may will be better to stay away till will have a fresh trading signal.


Is trading right above the 112.50 psychological level and was very close to react and retest a dynamic support level (resistance turned into support). The current decrease is natural after the false breakout above the 23.6% retracement level and after the failure to reach the third warning line (WL3). The Yen will appreciate further if the Nikkei stock index will drop and will stabilize below the 20058 level.

NZD/USD buying opportunity?

The pair increased sharply in the previous week and has managed to close above a major static resistance. The breakout needs confirmation, a minor consolidation above the 0.7324 broken static resistance will bring us a good buying opportunity.


Price will resume the upside movement only if will have enough energy to close above the 0.7367 previous high. Personally, I would like the rate to come to retest the fourth warning line (wl4) before will increase further.

By Olimpiu Tuns

Market Analyst

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