FX Speculators slightly raised US Dollar bullish bets after 2 down weeks

 

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $15.04 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly added to their bullish bets for the US dollar last week following two weekly declines.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $15.04 billion as of Tuesday April 11th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly gain of $0.37 billion from the $14.67 billion total long position that was registered on April 4th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Dollar speculators pushed their dollar bets a little over the $15 billion dollar level after falling below that the previous week. The aggregate dollar position has stayed in a relatively tight range since falling below the $20 billion level in January with the dollar bets staying in the recent range of between $13.01 billion (low) and $18.47 (high).


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Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were just the Japanese yen (11,036 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (3,697 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-7,551 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-6,228 contracts),  Canadian dollar (-2,109 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,442 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-429 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-2,987 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

CurrencyNet CommercialsComms Weekly ChgNet SpeculatorsSpecs Weekly Chg
EuroFx160768979-18956-7551
GBP1124305558-105901-6228
JPY45399-14807-3476411036
CHF22158541-101283697
CAD38595-115-32334-2109
AUD-48446681445151-4442
NZD15970558-15153-429
MXN68073103-12675-2987

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX: 

 

British Pound Sterling: 

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

 

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com